Half of Gen Z voters say they’ll vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in November, while one-third say they’ll vote for former President Donald Trump — a bigger gap for the Democratic nominee than some other polls this year but not quite at 2020 levels for the party, according to a new survey of registered voters under 30.
The results of the NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z Poll, powered by SurveyMonkey, come as young voters grapple with new economic and cultural challenges in 2024, including rising costs and concerns about debt that are prompting delays to some critical life events.
Another 1 in 10 respondents to the poll said they will not vote in the presidential election.
Harris is backed by 60% of young voters who say they’re almost certain that they will cast a ballot in the presidential election. That figure pulls in line with the 60% of 18- to 29-year-olds won by Joe Biden in the 2020 election against Trump, according to NBC News exit poll results.
MORE: Young voters harbor deep worries about inflation, debt, housing
It’s starkly different than Biden’s results in some 2024 polls before he dropped out of the race — and the new survey, which polled 2,617 respondents online, indicates some major reasons why. A total of 73% of Gen Z voters said they would support setting a maximum age limit for candidates to be eligible to run for president, while 27% said they would oppose such a limit.
Among those who said they support an age limit for president, 54% said the age limit should be under 65 years old.
Now, in a Harris-Trump race, the gender gap among Gen Z voters is significant. Young women said they’re going to vote for Harris for president by 30 points. Young men also said they favor Harris — but by only 4 points over Trump.
There is no significant difference between the two groups in terms of their enthusiasm to vote; around 55% of both young men and women say they are “absolutely certain” that they will vote in November.
About 8 in 10 Gen Z voters who identify as Democrat or Republican say they’ll vote for their party’s candidate in November. Support for the two candidates is evenly divided between Harris and Trump among independents, with both candidates winning around 25% of young voters.
Critically, a whopping 34% of young independents who do not lean toward either party say they will not vote in the presidential election.
Overall, an overwhelming majority of the young voters who responded (88%) said they’re likely to vote in the presidential election, including 55% who said they’re almost certain they’ll vote.
Harris receives robust support from college graduates, besting Trump by 26 points among this group (56% to 30%). Additionally, only 5% of college graduates say they won’t vote for president in November. Harris also does equally well among currently enrolled college students, leading Trump by 25 points (54% to 29%).
Support between the two candidates is tied at 41% among young voters without a college degree who are not currently enrolled in school.
How Gen Z does politics
Three-quarters have participated in the political process in ways that aren’t directly related to campaigns or elections over the last year, while a quarter have not engaged in the political process in any way. Among the ways Gen Z participates in the political process: unfollowing celebrities or political figures on social media (37%), signing a petition (34%), boycotting a product or company (32%), sharing political opinions or news articles on social media (31%), and unfollowing friends or family on social media (29%).
As many as 54% of Gen Z voters who said they participated in the political process are voting for Harris, compared to 33% for Trump.
Just under 7 in 10 Gen Z voters said the country is ready to elect a female president, the poll found, including 38% who said the country is definitely ready. And 3 in 10 respondents said the country is not ready for a woman president.
Seven in 10 voters who said they’re definitely ready to elect a woman as president are supporting Harris, and the same share of voters who said they are definitely not ready are supporting Trump.
When it comes to the candidates’ running mates, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is the clear favorite among young voters. Three in 10 voters rated Harris’ choice of Walz as “excellent,” while an identical share rate Trump’s choice of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as “poor.”
Overall, 56% of Gen Z voters felt positively about Harris’ VP choice, versus only 33% who had a sunny outlook about Trump’s pick. Another 20% of young voters have no opinion on either Walz or Vance.
Newly eligible voters support Harris
Voters under 30 who did not vote in the 2020 presidential election because they were not yet eligible are planning to vote for Harris over Trump by 26-points (57% to 31% respectively).
Among those who were eligible but did not vote in 2020, it’s a toss-up: 30% said they support Harris and 27% Trump, well within the poll’ s margin of error. Of this group, 36% say they will not vote in November.
Three-quarters of Biden 2020 voters said they’ll support Harris and 14% said they’ll vote Trump this time around. Similarly, 73% of Trump 2020 voters said they’re going to vote for him again but 23% of 2020 Trump voters said they’re planning to vote for Harris in November.
This NBC News Stay Tuned Gen Z poll was powered by SurveyMonkey, the fast, intuitive feedback management platform where 20 million questions are answered daily. It was conducted online Aug. 23-30 among a national sample of 2,617 registered voters 18-29 years old. The data was weighted to population totals among 18-29-year-olds for sex, race, census region (all from the American Community Survey), and partisanship (from the Cooperative Election Study). The estimated margin of error for this survey is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher.
