The Cleveland Guardians (80-59) and Kansas City Royals (75-65) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Royals lead 7-5
The Guardians hammered the Royals 7-1 to cash as the road favorite (-129) on Tuesday, with the total (8) pushing at most shops. Cleveland is looking for the 3-game road sweep in Wednesday’s game after dropping 3 of 4 at home to Kansas City Aug. 26-28.
The Guardians have won 5 of the past 6 outings, while the Under is on a 3-0-1 run in the past 4 contests.
The Royals are in freefall, dropping 7 consecutive games to slip 5 1/2 games behind the Guardians for 1st place. Kansas City is a game back of the Minnesota Twins for 2nd place in the AL Central Division, too.
Kansas City has averaged just 2.0 runs per game (RPG) in the past 6 games, while the Under is on a 3-1-1 run in the previous 5 outings. After KC won 3 straight to open the 4-game series in Cleveland, the Guardians have taken 3 straight against the Royals.
Guardians at Royals projected starters
RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP
Lively (11-8, 3.92 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 131 IP.
Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 home victory vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
2024 road splits: 4-6, 3.90 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.22 WHIP, .237 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 11 HR, 22 BB, 56 K in 12 starts
Post All-Star break: 3-3, 4.60 ERA (43 IP, 22 ER), 1.35 WHIP, .243 OBA, 7 HR, 17 BB, 27 K in 8 starts
2024 vs. Royals: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2-1 road setback June 27
Career vs. Royals: 4-1, 3.19 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 9 HR, 0.99 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 10 starts
Lugo (14-8, 3.12 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 179 IP.
Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 3-2 road loss vs. Houston Astros Friday
2024 home splits: 6-5, 3.36 ERA (88 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 1.15 WHIP, .240 OBA, 22 BB, 70 K in 14 starts
Post All-Star break: 3-4, 4.67 ERA (52 IP, 27 ER), 1.19 WHIP, .240 OBA, 4 HR, 14 BB, 39 K in 8 starts
2024 vs. Guardians: 1-0, 3.75 ERA (12 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, .217 OBA, 2 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
Career vs. Guardians: 1-0, 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 3 appearances (2 starts)
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Guardians at Royals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Guardians +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Royals -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-184) | Royals -1.5 (+152)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
Guardians at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 6, Guardians 5
Moneyline
The ROYALS (-134) have their best pitcher on the bump. Although Lugo was much better before the All-Star break than after, he has been fairly steady all season.
The Guardians (+116) have really made life difficult for Kansas City after the Royals made a run at the division lead just last week. Now, the Royals are sinking like a stone, and they need their All-Star to stop a 7-game losing streak in the worst way.
Run line/Against the spread
If you need some insurance, and just can’t bet the Guardians +1.5 (-184) straight up, this isn’t a good bet. You would need to risk nearly 2 times your potential return on the visitors.
AVOID, and just play Cleveland straight up if you like it.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Over/Under
OVER 8.5 (-114) is worth a look in Wednesday’s series finale after an Under in the opener, and a push at most shops on Tuesday.
Both Lively and Lugo have put up a lot of crooked numbers since the All-Star break, and both starters have a post-break ERA of 4.60 or higher. We could see a higher-scoring affair.
If you’re looking to play a few games of your own, check out the online casino real money action available or play on social casinos instead for free.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:Subscribe now to dominate the competition.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.
