We can dispense with the complications now: the jacked-up point differentials and byzantine tiebreakers, the special scheduling and alternate playing surfaces, etc. What’s left at the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup is all that’s ever left when the game matters most: two teams, with only one game and one another standing between them and a big ol’ gold trophy.
What began as a league-wide effort to inject some flavor into the period between opening night and Christmas Day concludes with just two teams vying for the crown.
Out of the West: the Oklahoma City Thunder, a two-way juggernaut on a 66-win pace that delivered its fifth-straight double-digit victory in the semifinals, outshining the Houston Rockets behind suffocating defense and a now-customary 30-plus-point outing from MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander:
And from the East: the Milwaukee Bucks, who’ve bounced back from a dismal 2-8 start to win 12 of their last 15, advancing to the final by holding off a spirited charge from the upstart Atlanta Hawks led by Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP dominated on the interior, finishing with 32 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists and four blocks — none more impressive than the rejection of a would-be alley-oop to Hawks center Clint Capela to keep Milwaukee up two scores late in the fourth quarter:
Let’s set the table for what’s sure to be a thrilling conclusion between the top seeds in the tournament by considering three big questions ahead of Tuesday’s NBA Cup championship (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC):
1. How will Oklahoma City guard Giannis?
The Thunder saw Antetokounmpo only once last season … and, honestly, that was probably more than enough for head coach Mark Daigneault and his staff.
An Oklahoma City rotation replete with smart, opportunistic athletes could get away with playing small against a lot of opponents. Giannis, however, isn’t “a lot of opponents.” He’s a whole different thing, and defended primarily by players half a foot shorter than he is, he had a field day in March: 30 points on 13-for-18 shooting, with every bucket coming inside the paint, plus 19 rebounds, eight on the offensive glass, as Milwaukee cruised to a 118-93 win.
This Thunder team is built a little differently than last year’s model, but with Chet Holmgren in street clothes rehabilitating his fractured hip, the matchup questions still loom large. As a member of the Knicks, Isaiah Hartenstein saw some action on Antetokounmpo, but spent most of his time wrestling with Bucks center Brook Lopez while the likes of Julius Randle and OG Anunoby picked up the Giannis assignment. With top stopper Luguentz Dort probably detailed to Damian Lillard, that likely leaves the job to Jalen Williams, all 6-foot-5 of him, who played the 5 last month while Oklahoma City was without proper centers … and who got the bulk of the assignment in that blowout Bucks win last season.
It might make some sense for OKC to slot Williams on Antetokounmpo with Hartenstein perpetually lurking behind as a helper — akin to the way some opponents have taken to guarding Nikola Jokić in Denver — and trust that, when Giannis kicks the ball out to find an open teammate, its elite off-ball defenders can play on a string tight enough to nail the necessary rotations and keep Milwaukee from generating a barrage of wide-open 3s. That gets trickier in practice, though, when Antetokounmpo’s teammates are knocking down the triples he creates: The Bucks are tied for the league lead in 3-point percentage over their last 15 games, and tied for fourth in made triples per game, with every member of the rotation save for Giannis and the just-returned Khris Middleton drilling at least 38% of their long balls in this stretch. (Here’s where we note that Giannis is posting a career-high assist rate and a career-low turnover rate, and leads the NBA in passes leading to 3-pointers.)
Maybe Daigneault juggles the perimeter matchups, sliding second-year nuisance Cason Wallace over to Lillard some to free up Dort — just 6-foot-4, but with heavy hands and roughly the density of a cement truck — to give Giannis a different look. You can bet that Alex Caruso’s going to get a turn when he checks in off the Thunder bench, too … and you can bet that he’s going to give it maximum effort when he does:
If I could define Caruso’s game in one play it might be this one.
Defending Giannis on the out of bounds play.
Steals the ball
Pushes in transition
Recognizes the cutting PatWill and gets him an easy slam
Game winning plays pic.twitter.com/WdCsCN38HR
— Andrew Schlecht (@AndrewKSchlecht) September 12, 2024
Oklahoma City enters Tuesday not only leading the NBA in points allowed per possession, but staking a claim as the stingiest defense since the ABA-NBA merger. Daigneault’s club applies constant pressure, forcing turnovers on 19% of opponents’ offensive trips — on pace for the highest opponent turnover rate since the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season. The Thunder will need every ounce of that swarming, suffocating, smothering defensive effort to slow down Giannis — the league’s leading scorer, a bona fide contender for his third MVP trophy, capable of sending even perhaps the best team in the NBA home from Vegas with an awfully nasty hangover.
2. Is Andre Jackson Jr. ready for prime time?
The second-year guard out of UConn has earned his way into Doc Rivers’ starting lineup with his athleticism, defensive aptitude, and relentless activity, routinely deployed in defending an opponent’s most dangerous perimeter weapon.
Doc Rivers gave a shoutout to Andre Jackson Jr last night after the game in the locker room for his defense last night against The Miami Heat, here’s why: pic.twitter.com/GHW4satwrJ
— Follow HeavenlyBuckets (@heavenlybuckets) November 28, 2024
The 23-year-old is one of just seven players in the entire NBA to rank in the 98th percentile or higher in both average matchup difficulty and perimeter isolation defense, according to The BBall Index’s game charting — a list that includes Dort and breakout defensive menace Dyson Daniels. In the Bucks’ path through group play and the knockout stages, Jackson has locked horns with Tyrese Haliburton, Tyler Herro, Cade Cunningham and Trae Young.
And now, Milwaukee’s chances of raising the NBA Cup might depend on how effectively he deals with this friggin’ guy:
Milwaukee enters the final ranked an underwhelming 17th in points allowed per possession outside of garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass; since Rivers slid Jackson into the starting five, though, the Bucks are 13th. The first step to plugging up a leaky defense is limiting dribble penetration from the point of attack, and Jackson’s length, quickness and motor have played a huge role in the Bucks getting better at doing that; they’ve conceded 5.9 fewer points-per-100 with Jackson on the floor than off of it.
At 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-9.75-inch wingspan and 210 pounds, Jackson matches up well with Gilgeous-Alexander physically … which doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything except that he’ll be able to see SGA eye-to-eye as he gets blown past, if he’s not careful. Oklahoma City’s offense thrives when it can get the drive-and-kick game humming — beat the first line of defense, force a rotation to stop the ball, pass to whoever the helper just left open, repeat until you get a great look. The Thunder score 103.5 points-per-100, a top-five mark, with Gilgeous-Alexander at the controls, serving as the engine of that attack as the NBA’s leader in drives to the basket per game — for the fifth season in a row.
Much like Antetokounmpo on the other end, no individual defender can really keep Gilgeous-Alexander under wraps for the full 48 minutes. Guarding him takes team-wide commitment, discipline and attention … and even then, he might just get low and skinny enough to slither through a keyhole’s worth of space for a runner, or put a shoulder into your chest to generate enough space for that impossibly soft stepback on the baseline. There’s a silver lining to the dark cloud of guarding SGA, though: Milwaukee was actually one of just five teams to hold him under 20 points last season, limiting him to 12 points on 12 shots with four turnovers in that March blowout.
“They had him in a crowd for much of the night, and made it very difficult for him to get his cracks,” Daigneault told reporters after the game.
Doing that again will require Jackson to be at the top of his game. If he’s equal to the task, Milwaukee’s chances improve considerably; if he’s not, the Bucks might be drawing dead against the best team in the West.
3. Who sets the pace?
The Thunder’s defensive philosophy relies on relentless ball pressure in an effort to force turnovers and get their armada of bright young athletes out on the break. It’s no surprise, then, that Oklahoma City ranks eighth in the NBA in average time to shot, according to Inpredictable, getting an attempt up within 11.3 seconds of getting the ball, on average.
The Bucks, on the other hand, are the NBA’s oldest team; with the exception of Antetokounmpo and Jackson, Milwaukee’s rotation relies more on skill and execution than bounce and explosion. It’s no surprise, then, that the Bucks rank 26th in average time to shot — and second in the share of their offensive possessions where they operate in the half-court, rather than in transition. Oklahoma City, by contrast? Fourth in transition frequency.
If OKC’s Dobermans can create chaos, bust up possessions and run off the miscues, that’d be bad news for a Bucks team that’s tied for 23rd in points allowed per possession in transition, according to Synergy Sports Technology. It’s imperative, then, for Milwaukee to take care of the ball … which means that Lillard, who leads the Bucks in touches and time of possession, needs to keep the game on Dame Time rather than on OKC’s sped-up clock.
It’s not going to be easy to play a clean game with the likes of Dort, Wallace and Caruso breathing down his neck, but that’s why Milwaukee went out and got Lillard: to do it when it’s not easy. To provide the kind of metronomic consistency, ceiling-raising shot-making and cold-blooded finishing that can keep a team steady in the biggest moments, and get it across the finish line.
The NBA Cup isn’t the NBA Finals, but it’s what we’ve got for now. Giannis can get the Bucks awfully far on his own; against an opponent as stifling as Oklahoma City, though, he’ll need his running buddy to live up to his billing, keeping the Thunder at bay and the game on a tight leash … until it’s time for him to unleash.
What to know about the NBA Cup Final
The NBA Cup championship game is the only one in the entire Emirates NBA Cup tournament that won’t also count toward participants’ regular-season records and statistics. For these two teams, it will count as Game 83.
Just making the knockout round guaranteed every player on the participating teams a payout; to the winners, though, go greater spoils, with the tournament champion taking home the biggest bank.
For the inaugural in-season tournament, the prize pool operated in nice round numbers: $50,000 for each player on teams that lose in the quarterfinals; $100,000 for players on teams that lose in the semifinals; $200,000 for players on the team that loses in the final game; and a crisp $500,000 for everyone on the team that hoists the NBA Cup. The math’s a little wonkier this year, thanks to a passage in the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players union stipulating that those prize payouts rise by a “growth factor” tied to any increase in the basketball-related income (BRI) that the league generates.
BRI went up from last season to this one; ergo, so have the payouts:
(Granted: not quite as clean as all those zeroes on last year’s winnings. Somehow, though, I don’t think the players will mind.)
Win on Tuesday, and you take home the whole showcase: the NBA Cup and whatever bragging rights go with it, plus that $514,971 winner’s purse for each player. Which, as holiday bonuses go? Pretty decent.
https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-cup-2024-here-are-3-big-questions-ahead-of-the-bucks-thunder-championship-game-205850513.html
