A million dollars? For a baseball player? People could hardly believe it.
In November of 1979, Nolan Ryan and the Houston Astros agreed to a four-year, $4 million agreement, making the Texas hurler the first player in MLB history to make at least a million dollars per year. Reporters and the public soon christened him “The Million Dollar Man.” It was a headline-catching, paradigm-shifting contract — evidence the sport had changed and was still changing.
The advent of free agency in the 1970s, brought about by a series of player-led labor battles, sent contract values skyrocketing. Ryan and the game’s other top stars were finally being paid what they were worth. Still, the sticker shock of that big, fat, round number attached to Ryan’s name made it difficult for some fans to wrap their heads around.
Oh, if they could see us now.
The ink has hardly settled on Juan Soto’s landmark, eye-watering, $765 million pact with the New York Mets. It is a mammoth number, one that can grow even larger. If Soto opts out after 2029 and the Mets choose to retain him by adding $4 million to each of the final 10 years of the agreement, $765 million will turn into more than $800 million.
It is a mountain peak that won’t be summited again for quite some time.
Soto is, of course, generational. Also, the bidding war to earn his services was amplified by the perfect storm: a New York showdown between two of the game’s richest teams. But Soto aside, the current MLB landscape is not particularly ripe with young stars hurtling toward the open market. Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Chourio and Corbin Carroll all signed lengthy extensions that will keep them from reaching free agency at a young age. There is no obvious candidate to surpass Soto.
But surely, similar things were said about Ryan and that first class of baseball millionaires. The thought of a baseball player earning a billion dollars would’ve fritzed the mental circuit boards of any early-21st-century ball fan. But time rolls on, money gets more expensive, and our expectations adjust.
That is to say: One day, some big leaguer will sign a $1 billion contract. Who will that be? Let’s dive down that rabbit hole and theorize irresponsibly.
First, a note on age
Soto’s contract might reach $800 million, in large part because the contract is 15 years long. Still just 26 years old, Soto’s massive payday was made possible by his notably early MLB debut at age 19.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, widely considered superior players to Soto during their own free-agent sweepstakes, received “only” $360 million and $460 million in present-day value because they hit the market at 30 and 29, respectively.
It pays to be young. And so, whoever eventually crosses the nine-figure threshold will need to reach the bigs and free agency as early as possible.
And on position
Unless we get massive advances in medical technology, the first billion dollar player will be a position player. Elbows are simply too fragile, pitchers too susceptible to wear and tear.
If Paul Skenes wants a contract that starts with a B, he should start hitting again like he did in college.
Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Merrill
These three are grouped together because they represent a similar archetype: a very good, very young player with a mile to go before free agency. Henderson, who is 23 years old with more career bWAR compiled already than Nick Castellanos, is the best of the trio. He is also a client of agent Scott Boras, the man who negotiated Soto’s megadeal. But Henderson (1) will hit free agency two years older than Soto was and (2) doesn’t yet have Soto’s no-doubt, generational offensive track record. It’s unlikely, but he could get there.
For De La Cruz, also represented by Boras, the question is about his ceiling; nobody in the world offers such a tantalizing speed-power combo. But teams will certainly have concerns about how the 6-foot-6 shortstop will age. Soto’s value was entirely focused on his bat, something clubs believed wouldn’t fade over time.
Merrill, who debuted this past season at 21, is on this list simply because he’s a phenomenally skilled young hitter who, barring an extension, would hit free agency entering his age-27 season. Will he be the first billion dollar player? Probably not, but again, nobody thought Soto would get $800 million when he debuted.
Jackson Holliday or Junior Caminero
The baby-faced Baltimore infielder thoroughly underwhelmed in his 2024 debut season. But the former No. 1 overall prospect did something massively important for this dumb exercise: He debuted at 20. That means he’ll be a free agent heading into his age-27 season. Holliday still has to, you know, develop into a generational big leaguer, but the bones are here.
Caminero, born a few months before Holliday, will hit the open market in 2031, at the same time as Holliday. The Tampa Bay third baseman also showed a bit more aptitude than his division counterpart in 2024, though there’s still a long way to go before a free-agent payday.
Arjun Nimmala
OK, follow me on this one.
Nimmala, drafted 20th overall by the Blue Jays in 2023, took a huge developmental step forward in Low-A this past season. But that’s not why he’s on the list. To earn $1 billion, you have to be a financial draw. And Nimmala, who is Indian American and spent his summers as a kid visiting family in India, has a chance to break into a new market as a global superstar.
Rangers pitcher Kumar Rocker became the first Indian American big leaguer when he debuted in 2024, but Nimmala, currently 19, has a chance to move the needle even further, both as a position player and as a player who could get to the big leagues at a young age. In the (highly unlikely) scenario that Nimmala figures it out, becomes one of the best players in MLB and makes the world’s most populous country fall in love with baseball, well, that might be worth a billion dollars.
Leodalis De Vries
The 18-year-old Dominican shortstop was signed by the Padres less than a year ago, but he’s already making waves. San Diego sent him to Low-A Lake Elsinore this past season, where De Vries held his own despite being the youngest player in the entire league. He struggled somewhat in the Arizona Fall League but remains an extremely exciting prospect.
There’s a scenario, albeit an unlikely one, in which the Padres, who have a track record of rocketing their players up the ladder, push De Vries to the majors for some part of next season. That could make him a free agent heading into his age-24 or age-25 season — even younger than Soto. Of course, for that to matter for this exercise, he also has to be really good.
Ethan Holliday
Jackson’s brother and Matt’s second son is considered by many prognosticators to be the top prospect in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft. Ethan is much bigger and more physical than his older brother, which gives him a higher power potential and makes a corner infield spot his more likely defensive home. The youngest Holliday would have to jet his way up whichever farm system he lands in, but the offensive ceiling is there. That said, probably not for a billion dollars.
The likeliest answer
At the recent winter meetings, I strolled the premises asking various baseball people within organizations this billion dollar question. The most common response, a near consensus, was: We don’t know his name yet.
Nearly everyone I talked to believed that the billion dollar boy is indeed already walking this earth, likely somewhere in Japan or the Dominican Republic at the moment, but the billion dollar day is too far in the distance for us to actually know anything about the human in question.
https://sports.yahoo.com/who-will-be-mlbs-first-1-billion-player-223317942.html
