Is it last orders for puffing with a pint? Almost certainly.
With Labour’s massive 172-seat majority in the Commons, smoking in pub gardens and outside football stadiums, nightclubs and restaurants looks certain to be stubbed out.
Politics live: Tories and Farage attack talk of outdoor smoking ban
During his visit to Gauloises-loving Paris, Sir Keir Starmer effectively confirmed that the butt stops here for outdoor cigarettes, in a baccy ban aimed at stopping 80,000 deaths a year.
The outrage from the pub and restaurant trade – and from Tory MPs who are howling “Nanny State!” at the PM – is entirely predictable. But it seems the public backs a ciggy clampdown.
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A snap poll by YouGov suggested 58% back the ban and only 35% are opposed, which will reassure Sir Keir as he embarks on what he regards as a public health crusade.
He argues that those 80,000 preventable deaths each year caused by smoking are a huge burden on the NHS and the taxpayer. And that means beer garden baccy looks set to go up in smoke.
The NHS is “on its knees”, the prime minister claimed, adding: “We have to relieve the burden. I want the NHS back on its feet.”
We can expect to hear a lot more of that argument.
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Smoking ban in pub gardens being considered, confirms Starmer
As far as we know, Sir Keir is a non-smoker. Asked in interviews if he took drugs as a student, all he has admitted to is: “I had a good time when I was a student. We worked hard and played hard.”
Tony Blair, however, who introduced the 2007 indoor smoking ban at the fag end of his time in Number 10, has revealed he gave up smoking 15 minutes before his wedding in 1980.
“It was part of the bargain,” he said during a pub visit, disclosing how Cherie gave him an ultimatum. It was an admission that led to accusations that there was nothing like the zeal of a reformed smoker.
The current Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been spotted smoking a crafty cigarette on occasions. And politics has had some serious smokers over the years: Winston Churchill, Ken Clarke, Michael Gove and John Reid, for example.
Yet when MPs voted for an indoor ban in 2007, even MPs who were heavy smokers, like the Guinness-drinking larger-than-life scouser Peter Kilfoyle, voted in favour, saying they did so on public health grounds.
During those Commons debates there were calls for exemptions, for private clubs, for example. And though there was one vote in favour of exempting working men’s clubs, ultimately MPs voted for a total ban.
Let’s not forget either that the legislation currently before parliament was Rishi Sunak’s bill to phase out smoking and vaping, a policy which he first announced in his Tory conference speech last year.
But many Tory MPs hated it and, on a free vote in April, 57 of them voted against Mr Sunak’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, while 106 either abstained or didn’t turn up. Labour votes meant a 383-67 vote in favour.
Of the six current Tory leadership candidates, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick voted against, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly and Mel Stride voted in favour, and Priti Patel didn’t vote.
Before it comes to a Commons vote on an outdoor ban, however, there’s a whole packet of burning issues to be considered.
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Reform Party leader Nigel Farage is particularly upset by the proposals. Pic: PA
What about smoking on the pavement outside a pub or restaurant? Or outside hospitals, schools, college and university campuses, sports grounds, gyms or other sporting venues?
Plenty of MPs will have a view on all those questions. But one of Westminster’s newest MPs, the beer ‘n’ baccy loving member for Clacton, has a simple message for the PM: butt out!
“I’ll never go the pub again if outdoor smoking is banned,” Reform UK leader Nigel Farage wrote for The Telegraph website. Drastic!
So far, however, public opinion appears to be against Mr Farage on outlawing lighting up outdoors. And a beer garden baccy ban is likely to be approved by a big majority of MPs too.
