Key Takeaways
Despite a season-high five-game winning streak, the Indiana Fever are the underdogs vs. the Minnesota Lynx.
Both teams have been playing some great basketball following the Olympic break. Look for crucial individual matchups to dictate the outcome.
Betting trends suggest the Fever could cover the spread, but smart money should be on the Lynx to secure the win.
The second half of the 2024
WNBA
season is in full swing. One of the games on today’s slate features the
Indiana Fever
(18-16 SU, 20-14 ATS) hosting the
Minnesota Lynx
(24-9 SU, 20-12-1 ATS) as these teams face each other for the third and final time this season.
Here is a look at which squad has the edge in this matchup and why.
Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx Game Info
When
Fri. Sept 6
Where
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Time
7:30 PM EST
Location
Indianapolis, IN
TV
ION
Fever vs. Lynx – Season Stats & Betting Trends
Indiana is the underdog vs. Minnesota
Credit: Justin Casterline/Getty Images
The Fever are one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Since the league resumed play a few weeks ago, Indiana has posted seven wins in its last eight outings. Not only that, but they are riding the wave of a five-game winning streak, which includes a 93-86 victory over the
Los Angeles Sparks
on Wednesday. Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston were the noteworthy performers in that contest.
Clark recorded her second career triple-double, finishing with 24 points,10 rebounds, and 10 assists. Boston also scored 24 points, along with 14 rebounds and four assists. Kelsey Mitchell contributed 18 points and four rebounds for a Fever squad that has won five straight for the first time this season.
It should also be mentioned that Indiana has earned its first playoff berth since 2016. While that is an accomplishment, Clark is not satisfied with merely making it to the postseason tournament. Here’s what she had to say about this subject via CBS Sports.
“This isn’t a party. I’m not just happy to be in the playoffs. I think we have the type of team that can win and advance.”
Conversely, the Lynx have also been playing some good basketball. After a 16-8 start, Minnesota has strung together eight victories across its last nine outings, including a 79-74 win over the Chicago Sky on Sep. 1. Three of the team’s starters reached double figures, headlined by Courtney Williams’ 22 points and six assists. Kayla McBride added 17 points, while Napheesa Collier finished with 15 points and five rebounds.
Minnesota led by nine points heading into the final frame. But that lead evaporated as Chicago opened the fourth quarter with an 11-2 outburst to tie the game at 62 with 7:41 left to play in regulation. Williams scored baskets on Minnesota’s next two possessions, pushing the advantage back to four points — a lead they would not relinquish. These teams split the first two regular-season meetings. Will the Lynx come out on top again, or will the Fever extend their winning streak to six games?
Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal East vs. West matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.
Fever vs. Lynx Odds and Picks
GIVEMESPORT presents our picks and analysis
Spread
Despite their recent success, the Fever opened as a two-point underdog, and at the time of this writing, the line has moved to three points (via OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.
The Fever are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Indiana holds a 9-2 record against the spread in its last 11 outings at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
The Fever are 6-1 ATS in their last seven matchups against opponents with a winning record.
Meanwhile, the Lynx are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests.
Minnesota is an impressive 12-5 against the spread in its last 17 road games.
The Lynx are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 games they have played on three or more days of rest.
Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (-3)
Over/Under
This matchup’s projected over/under total is 169.5 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.
The total has gone UNDER six times in the Fever’s last nine contests against Minnesota.
The UNDER total is 11-5 in the Lynx’s last 16 games overall.
The total has gone UNDER seven times in Minnesota’s last 10 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
The UNDER total holds a 7-1 record in the Lynx’s last eight outings following an ATS loss.
Prediction: UNDER 169.5 points
Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of Bet365.com)
© Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Do Collier’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.
During the season, Collier puts up 20.4 points per game.
In her previous outing against the Fever this season, Collier dominated, finishing with 31 points on 12-of-18 shooting from the floor.
Collier has played against Eastern Conference teams 11 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 19.3 points per outing.
In 13 road contests, the Lynx forward averages 20.7 points per game.
Over her last five outings, Collier has averaged 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.
Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points
Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.
During the season, Boston has been putting up 13.7 points per game.
In the two previous matchups against the Lynx this season, Boston has averaged 13.5 points and 15.5 rebounds, with a 59.1 percent conversion rate.
Boston has suited up against Western Conference teams 16 times this season. In those contests, she is averaging 14.8 points per game.
In 15 home contests, the Indiana Fever forward averages 15.3 points per game.
Over her last five outings, the reigning Rookie of the Year has averaged 12.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.
Prediction: Aliyah Boston OVER 13.5 points
Fever vs. Lynx Final Picks
The Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3) Odds Shark
Over/Under: UNDER 169.5 points (Bleacher Nation)
Player Prop Bet #1: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points
Player Prop Bet #2: Aliyah Boston OVER 13.5 points
