ITI Mutual Fund expect the growth to moderate next year even though the structural long-term growth story for India remains intact driven by favourable demographics and stable governance.
The heightened trade friction, problems in China and global geopolitical situation is expected to put pressure on the fiscal positions of major economies, it said.
In the advanced economies, policy focus could shift away from inflation control to job creation, and unemployment is likely to be closely tracked.
India seems to be no exception to the heightened volatility around it and currently appears to be relatively insulated against global shocks such as tariffs levied post-change in the US Presidency. Various key sectors are poised for substantial growth, even as the broader economy shows signs of moderation.
Pockets of opportunity
Rajesh Bhatia, Chief Investment Officer, ITI AMC, said slowing economic growth, high valuations, and weak earnings-per-share revisions could keep markets rangebound.
However, he said, pockets of opportunity will exist in sectors such as private banks, IT, digital commerce, capital goods, and pharma that may have a clearer path to stronger earnings and are expected to perform well.
The Indian equity markets remained resilient for most of CY2024 despite challenges posed by sticky inflation, weaker-than-expected September earnings, the outcome of the general elections, FII outflows, and global geopolitical uncertainty.
In 2024, bellwether Nifty and Sensex generated positive returns of 14 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively. While Nifty 100, Nifty Mid Cap 150 and Nifty Small Cap 250 were up by 18 per cent, 28 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively, on an absolute basis.
The central bank, however, has reduced the real GDP growth estimates for FY25 to 6.6 per cent from 7.2 per cent earlier. The decelerated growth rate was partly due to a decline in public capital expenditures. The central government’s capex growth declined from 30 per cent year-on-year CAGR between 2021 and 2024 to mid-single-digit nominal growth in 2025.
Future predictions
However, both the central government and listed corporations are expected to increase their investment next. Corporate order books are expanding across various sectors, and the number of ongoing projects has reached its highest since 2017. Private sector investment is projected to hit a decadal high of ₹55,122 billion, indicating a broad-based growth phase that could accelerate in the coming years.
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Published on December 17, 2024
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/markets/iti-mf-expects-markets-to-remain-volatile-next-year/article68995639.ece
