Two weeks ago, the Milwaukee Bucks loomed along with others as foreboding opponents and signs of a tougher road ahead. Things were bad and the schedule ahead suggested things were going to keep getting worse. Incredible how big a difference a couple weeks can make in the NBA. Now, this is a matchup between two 20-win teams. It should be a tough test, we all know better than to overlook Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, but right now it feels like the Sacramento Kings can beat any team on any given night.
Let’s talk Kings basketball!
When: Tuesday, January 14th, 5:00 PM PSTWhere: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WITV: NBA TV, NBCSCARadio: Sactown Sports 1140 AM
For Your Consideration
For much of this season, and even dating back to last season, the Sacramento Kings struggled with the math problem around three pointers. The Kings allowed opponents to shoot a high volume of threes, and because most of those looks were open, opponents converted at a high rate as well. At the same time the Kings were taking a below-average volume of threes, and missing them. It’s a hard math problem to overcome, and the Kings often didn’t.
The first few games under Doug Christie weren’t significantly different, but the new year has seen a new Kings team. Over 13 games in December the Kings attempted 35.2 threes per game and made 35.4% (their best month of the year up to the point both in volume and makes). In 6 games in January, the Kings are taking 40.8 threes per game and making 40.8%. Small sample size alarms are blaring behind me, but I’m ignoring them because these numbers back up what we’re seeing. The Kings are free, they are taking threes in the flow of the game, they are shifting to attack the rim if the threes aren’t falling, but that newfound freedom is resulting in makes. As for Sacramento’s opponents, they’re shooting 38.7 threes per game, slightly above the season’s average of 38.4, but are only hitting 36.2%, well below the season average of 37.6%. In November Kings opponents shot 38.5% from 3, in December is was 38.4%. The defensive adjustments have paid off so far. 36.2% is still below league average for 3 point defense, but we’ll enjoy seeing progress in the right direction.
The trends will face a solid test in this game. The Bucks are 15th in the league in 3PAs, but the league’s second best three point shooting team, making 38.6% of their threes. Teams are still taking an above-average number of threes against the Kings, knowing that Sacramento has given up plenty of good looks this season. Can the Kings run the Bucks off the line? Can they contest Milwaukee’s shots and hold them to a lower conversion rate? That could be the key to this one.
The Kings will be healthy for this one. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton, and Gary Trent Jr is listed as questionable, while Giannis is listed as Probable. Even if Trent sits, the Bucks should have plenty of weapons.
Update: Just kidding. The Kings will not be healthy and Doug has no roster balance to figure out tonight. Malik Monk was just added to the injury report with a sore groin and will miss this game.
Prediction
Giannis is stifled by Keegan Murray, De’Aaron Fox and Damian Lillard give us a show, but this time it’s Fox hitting the heartbreaking buzzer beater.
Kings 117, Bucks 116
