The Fighting Irish may not be able to beat Duke in Durham, but they can keep the score respectable even if Cooper Flagg stays hot, per Eric Rosales’ college basketball betting picks.
Jan 11, 2025 • 09:23 ET • 4 min read
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The surging Duke Blue Devils look to make it 10 straight wins and stay perfect in ACC play when they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish this afternoon. Tip is scheduled for Noon ET from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC.
Notre Dame has dropped three straight and are listed as distant 19.5-point road underdogs in the college basketball odds.
While the fourth-ranked Blue Devils are clearly the better team in this matchup, my Notre Dame vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks think the visitors might be the better play, especially with all those points.
Notre Dame vs Duke prediction
My best betNotre Dame +19.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Duke Blue Devils moved to a perfect 5-0 in ACC action with a 76-47 pummeling of Pittsburgh last time out. They’ve won five straight by double figures in conference action, and an eight-point win over then second-ranked Auburn is the only game settled under 10 points during this run.
While the Blue Devils’ offense gets a lot of the attention (and rightfully so), it’s the Duke defense that is the backbone to this success, currently the top-ranked defense at KenPom.
They allow just 58.4 points per game, tops in the ACC, and teams are shooting just 35.8% from the field — one of only five schools in the nation keeping teams at under 36% shooting.
That smothering defense is aided by the offense averaging 80 points per game, and finding its range from distance, as the Blue Devils have knocked down 10 or more 3-pointers in four straight games.
We’ll see how they react to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who exclusively play zone, and it may take time for the Blue Devils to adjust.
But Notre Dame is going to have to do a lot more if they want to pull off the upset. They’re coming off a 66-65 loss to NC State, a game after dropping another one-point decision to North Carolina.
While ND is inside KenPom’s Top 60 in offensive efficiency, scoring 74.9 points per game, they struggle against elite defenses. Against Houston (second in defensive efficiency on KenPom), Notre Dame mustered just 54 points, and just 48 against Georgia (20th).
But despite a 7-8 record, it’s fair to say the Irish are gamers. Of their eight losses on the season, only one of them was by double-digits, a 69-48 loss to Georgia.
They are 5-2-2 against the spread against power conference schools and are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a road underdog.
Duke is just 3-3-0 ATS in games where they are favored by 20 points or more.
While there’s no chance for ND to win, there’s just enough points given for the Fighting Irish to stay within range to cover.
Cooper Flagg pick: Shots keep falling
My best betCooper Flagg Over 18.5 points (-130 at bet365)
My analysis
Cooper Flagg’s prodigious talents and all the hype have sort of met at the apex. Since a disappointing 13 points in a loss to Kansas, Flagg has been playing some really good basketball.
He scored 19 in the blowout over Pitt on 7-of-11 shooting, after registering at least 24 points in three of the previous four. In fact, during this nine-game fun run, Flagg has topped the 18.5 scoring line he’s been given Saturday six times.
Averaging 20.8 points in ACC play, look for him to find pockets inside the Notre Dame zone to attack the paint, as well as along the 3-point line.
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Notre Dame vs Duke odds
Notre Dame vs Duke live odds
Notre Dame vs Duke opening odds
Spread: Notre Dame +20 | Duke -20 Moneyline: Notre Dame +1500 | Duke -5000 Over/Under: Over 136 | Below 136
Odds courtesy of bet365
Notre Dame vs Duke betting trend to know
The Blue Devils have won 14 straight home games vs unranked opponents. Find more college basketball betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Duke.
How to watch Notre Dame vs Duke
Location:
Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
Date:
Saturday, 1-11-2025
Tip-off:
12:00 p.m. ET
TV:
ESPN
Notre Dame vs Duke key injuries
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