Optimal NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 1, 2024: Fade this home favorite

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Your Week 1 NFL survivor strategy could benefit from picking against the right team. Atlanta could be the team to pick on with Week 1 NFL knockout pool picks considering its poor recent results in openers. The Falcons have lost five of their last six Week 1 games, with the only victory coming last year against a Panthers team that finished with the league’s worst record. The Falcons will host the Steelers in Week 1 and both teams will roll out new quarterbacks. Knowing that Pittsburgh has won three of its last four Week 1 contests is only added ammunition to pick on the Falcons with Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks. While Atlanta is one team to target, is it the best team to pick on in the opening week? Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins, even though they’re coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The Jags went 6-3 away from Jacksonville last year, and that includes a Week 1 road victory at Indianapolis. Despite missing the playoffs, Jacksonville still had a winning record (9-8) and displayed strengths in key areas. A hobbled Trevor Lawrence still led the team to a top-10 passing offense, Travie Etienne had nearly 1,500 scrimmage yards, and just seven teams forced more turnovers than Jacksonville’s defense.

The last of those stats may be most troublesome for Miami, whose offense faded down the stretch. After averaging 31.5 points through their first 14 games, that number was cut in half to 15.5 points over the Dolphins last four contests, three of which were defeats. Tua Tagovailoa was part of the reason for the decline, and his 19 turnovers last season were fifth-most in the NFL. Add in that Lawrence is 2-0 all-time versus Tagovailoa, counting both college and the NFL, and it’s best to save Miami for another week with your NFL survivor picks. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.


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