On brand as ever, Nigel Farage got the news that Reform appears to have surpassed the Tories in membership numbers while attending a traditional Boxing Day hunt.
He was filmed for TikTok and Instagram wearing tweeds and a flat-cap, getting the news on his phone. He said: “We’ve done it. We’re through. How about that? We’re now the official opposition.” Sticking out his tongue and smiling straight into the camera, he added: “It’s going to be a long day.”
Despite his deliberate efforts to appeal to conservative instincts, Farage’s social media methods are far from traditional for a UK politician.
While Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch delivered conventional Christmas speeches in suits in front of their festive trees, Farage’s social media offerings were unscripted, casual and broadcast to many more followers.
His Christmas day picture featured him in a Santa suit with a baby member of his clan on his knee in what looked very much like an ordinary, suburban family Christmas setting in front of patio doors.
These pictures and video clips of Farage are reaching his 5.4m-plus followers in a way that the other party leaders are barely attempting to do, and they are a large part of why Reform appears to be growing so strongly in membership and in the opinion polls.
Badenoch posted on X on Thursday to challenge Farage’s claims of surpassing the Tories in membership and to accuse him of faking the projection of the numbers on Conservative party HQ. But her claims that he does not understand the digital age do not add up when you look at the way he has been building support online.
While 130,000 members is a drop in the ocean compared with Farage’s social media reach, the overall number of voters, and the kind of mass membership enjoyed by political parties in past decades, those who sign up to become card carriers do matter. They are the foot soldiers who campaign and drop leaflets, set up branch offices, become candidates and eventually form a pool for future leadership talent.
The Conservatives claim not to be bothered by Reform’s growing size to rival their own membership base, but their associations are undoubtedly rattled by their increasing share of the vote in council byelections and target for expansion in the local elections next year. Labour should also be worried, after Reform won council byelections in Liverpool and Kent in the last month, as well as surging in Dudley where that allowed the Tories to take a seat off Labour.
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Despite the spat between Badenoch and Farage over which party actually has the highest number of members at this point in time, the fact remains that Reform appears to have the momentum after growing from nothing to a level that rivals an established party.
The next battle between them will be over the donors and high-profile defectors – and whether more big money will follow the foot soldiers in switching from the Conservatives to Reform. Past incarnations of Reform – from Ukip to the Brexit party – did not manage to professionalise or attract a broad enough coalition of support to convince donors to make the switch. The test will be if those willing to fund the party increasingly believe Farage is becoming the leader of a viable national entity.
