Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, national politics reporter Alex Seitz-Wald reports from Maine on a House Democrat who’s keeping his distance from the party’s convention. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki puts the 2024 polling gender gap in historical context.
Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter each night after the Democratic National Convention this week, bringing you all the latest news and analysis from our team in Chicago.
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Far from the convention, a Democrat runs from Harris and hands out beer in rural MaineBy Alex Seitz-Wald
PHILLIPS, Maine — As most of his fellow Democrats prepared to gather in Chicago, Rep. Jared Golden was looking for empty hands to shake or ply with cold beer along a small-town parade route.
“You got my vote!” yelled a man wearing a “F— Biden” baseball cap last Friday after Golden handed him a Bud Light wrapped in a campaign-branded koozie. An aide towed a rusty children’s wagon filled with ice and beer and flavored seltzers.
Golden, a 42-year-old tattooed former Marine who says he carries a concealed handgun “pretty much always,” announced last week that he will not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris or even say how he plans to vote in November, as the Democrat seeks a fourth term in a district he confidently predicts Harris will lose.
Golden has always kept his distance from his party — both in Congress, where he votes more often with Republicans than any other Democrat, and back home, where he rarely appears with other Democratic officials outside of official events.
His TV ads tout how he fought President Joe Biden’s administration and worked with then-President Donald Trump’s. He has not attended a House Democratic caucus meeting since 2021. And he’s called on his party to knock off the apocalyptic “pearl-clutching” about Trump’s alleged threat to democracy. He condemns the “toxic” influence of “lifestyle leftism” that he says has led his party to drift away from its working-class roots.
Golden will need more than a few Trump voters to split their ticket — an increasingly difficult task in this polarized age when all politics feels national — to again win one of the whitest and most rural congressional districts in the country, and the only one in New England that supported Trump in 2020.
While not every Democrat needs to court Trump voters as assiduously as Golden, he and his allies worry about the party losing touch with corners of the country by writing off efforts like his. And with Democrats only four seats away from the House majority, every district counts.
Back at the parade, Linda Ross, wearing a Trump hat and spotless white “Trump 2024” sneakers, called Golden over from the tailgate of a red pickup where she watched the progression of homemade floats, tractors and vintage cars.
“You’re bipartisan and you do a good job!” Ross said.
Read more from Alex →
🎙️The lineup: Back in Chicago, there are a bevy of other prominent Democrats who will be speaking on the second night of the party’s convention.
They include: former President Barack Obama; former first lady Michelle Obama; second gentleman Doug Emhoff; Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer; Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois; and New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.
Two Republicans are also on the schedule: former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham and Mayor John Giles of Mesa, Arizona.
🛣️ On the trail: Meanwhile, Harris and Tim Walz will travel north for a rally this evening in Milwaukee.
And Trump campaigned this afternoon in Howell, Michigan, while JD Vance stumped in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
5️⃣ By the numbers: NBC News’ Kristen Welker and Mark Murray break down the five poll numbers that tell the story of the Democratic convention. Read more →
Follow along with the latest 2024 election developments on our live blog →
How the gender gap in Harris-Trump polling stacks up to recent electionsBy Steve Kornacki
The gender gap in this presidential race is quite wide. But whether it’s a normal gap or an extraordinary one depends on where you look.
The five latest major national polls all show Harris ahead with women, and all but one of them also put Trump ahead with men:
In the context of modern politics, there’s nothing particularly surprising about these numbers. The gender gap has been a feature of American elections since 1980, when Ronald Reagan won the Republican nomination and moved the party — which had long featured prominent leaders with moderate and even liberal social views — to the cultural right.
That fall, Reagan crushed Jimmy Carter among men by 17 points while eking out a single-point margin with women. This kind of gender gap was a stark break from the past but has been the rule ever since:
In the newest national polls, the gender gap ranges from 7 to 22 points, broadly consistent with recent election results. From this perspective, Harris’ presence in the race hasn’t shaken up what has long been the norm when it comes to gender and voting patterns.
But then there are the battleground state polls — specifically, surveys from The New York Times and Siena College. The latest batch show a gender gap that has ballooned since Harris became the Democratic candidate, to 30 points in Georgia, more than 40 in Wisconsin and Arizona and nearly 50 in Michigan:
There are caveats here. The new numbers represent one set of numbers from one pollster — a pollster that, even before Harris’ candidacy, was already finding unusually high gender gaps. And with subgroup results like this, where the margin of error is higher, there’s more room for statistical noise. This might help explain the outlier status of Pennsylvania, where the gap is actually 20 points lower now than it was before Harris joined the race.
Still, the overall trend in the NYT/Siena polling is notable. It suggests there might be state-specific effects (from the massive ad spending that battleground states receive, or perhaps the particulars of abortion politics within a state) that could make for extra-large gender gaps in some places.
If that is consistently replicated in future polls, then the gender gap in 2024 could end up in the category of extraordinary.
🗞️ Today’s top stories🤔 Hard choices: Nicole Shanahan, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, said in a new interview that their campaign faces a choice between either staying in the presidential race — which would “risk” helping Harris win — or dropping out to “join forces” with Trump. Meanwhile, the campaign reported having just $3.9 million in the bank at the end of July. Read more → 🔵 Policy corner: Harris’ gradual unveiling of her policy agenda has highlighted an important dynamic: She’d need Democrats to win control of both chambers of Congress for many of her biggest goals to have a fighting chance. Read more → 🗣️ War of words: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, suggested Vance could gain more empathy for those who advocate for abortion access amid tragic circumstances if he went through a similar ordeal, comments that sparked an outcry from Vance and other Republicans. Read more → ☀️ If it’s Tuesday: It’s primary day in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming. In the Sunshine State, Rep. Matt Gaetz is facing a primary challenger backed by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, while the Senate matchup will officially be set. Read more → 🗳️ Down the ballot: NBC News’ Donna M. Owens dives into Democrat Angela Alsobrooks’ efforts to become the first Black woman to represent Maryland in the U.S. Senate. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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