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The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price continues to push higher in 2024. In an awe-inspiring effort, the stock is up 298% this year to date and isn’t showing any signs of slowing.
It is up 15% in the past month alone and is swapping hands at $143.75 apiece at publication on Friday afternoon.
The momentum also follows Commonwealth Bank’s strong FY24 result, and many investors are wondering whether its share price can keep climbing.
Some analysts are bullish on the stock. Let’s take a closer look.
Lending growth fuelling CBA share price
One key driver behind the CBA share price rise is lending growth. The bank lent $39 billion to businesses over the twelve months to FY24 and provided home financing to around 120,000 households.
In total, new fundings were up $10 billion over the year. This fits with the industry-wide trend.
The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that new loan commitments rose modestly in July 2024.
Housing loan commitments increased by 3.9%, while business construction loans climbed by 3.8%. Meanwhile, personal fixed-term loans also saw a rise of 2.2%.
According to Philip Pepe, Senior Equities Analyst at Shaw and Partners, there is a strong correlation between lending growth and the performance of Australian bank share prices.
My [basic] analysis shows that the share price performance of Australian banks is circa 65-70% correlated with the growth/volume of loans.
It appears that regardless of many sell-side analysts calling the Australian banks expensive, lending growth probably means share price growth. And if/when we do eventually get interest rate reductions in Australia, that may further fuel lending growth and perhaps also drive bank share prices even higher.
Whilst Pepe didn’t tie this to Commonwealth Bank directly, with lending on the rise, it’s no surprise the CBA share price is following suit.
Analyst opinions
So what is the opinion on CBA at this point in time? Well, despite the bank’s strong performance, not all analysts are convinced that the CBA share price can sustain its current levels.
Some brokers have voiced concerns about CBA being overvalued. Morgans is bearish, with a price target of $97.38 apiece.
This is an eye-watering 32% decline if the broker is correct.
Those at Morgan Stanley are also bearish, setting a price target on the CBA share price of $103.
But Goldman Sachs remains the most bearish. The broker rates Commonwealth Bank a sell, with an even lower price target of $94.80, which suggests a potential downside of 34%.
Goldman also raised concerns about CBA’s valuation, which could impact investment returns moving forward.
Foolish takeaway
The CBA share price has been on an impressive run this year, but opinions remain divided about its future trajectory.
Some analysts see risks and potential downside, but others highlight the industry’s growth in lending as a key tailwind.
The stock is up 42% in the past 12 months.
